Agile Attitudes- Let's Look at the Numbers

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Thu Jan 27 11:48:00 EST 2005


Agile Attitudes
Volume 2, Issue 2                                     Jan. 25, 2005
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            Let's Look at the Numbers
           by Nancy Van Schooenderwoert

Lately I've been taking a look at some interesting numbers. They are 
statistics from the Standish Group concerning the success rates of 
IT projects. No doubt you've seen some of these figures quoted in 
articles and presentations. I found that the Standish Group began 
publishing this information in 1994, as part of their “Chaos Report” 
and they've continued doing this ever since. Success means the 
project completed on time and within budget; Fail means it was 
cancelled before completion; Challenged covers all the rest. Here 
are the numbers since 1994:

Percent of IT Project Outcomes
        Success Fail    Challenged
1994    16      31      53
1996    27      40      33
1998    26      28      46
2000    28      23      49
2002    34      15      51
2004    28      18      53

Anytime numbers are quoted, questions spring up about the 
methodology used. I'll refer you here for those answers:
http://www.standishgroup.com/sample_research/chaos_1994_1.php

Note the increase of successful projects in 2002. Asked for the 
chief reasons project success rates have improved, Standish 
Chairman Jim Johnson said, “The primary reason is the projects 
have gotten a lot smaller. Doing projects with iterative processing 
as opposed to the waterfall method, which called for all project 
requirements to be defined up front, is a major step forward.”

Equally interesting is the drop right back to 28% success rate in 
the 2004 numbers. Amazing! Did our industry suddenly forget what 
was learned? Computerworld commentator Frank Hayes reports:

  “When I talked to Standish Chairman Jim Johnson, the numbers 
  [for 2004] were still being crunched. But he pointed to a few 
  significant details. For one: Projects are getting more expensive, 
  and big projects are more likely to fail. 

  For another: As projects get bigger, we're no longer keeping our 
  work iterative. We've gone back to more traditional development 
  practices -- practices with higher failure rates. 

  For a third: Lack of user involvement has jumped back to the top 
  position among reasons for IT project failure. But lack of 
  executive support is still running a very close second. Without 
  committed executive sponsors and involved users, our projects 
  fail.“

That second observation ties in with another figure that Standish 
publishes – that project success rate is inversely proportional to 
project size. Here's how that looks:

Project Success Rate vs. Budget Size
Over $10 million        2%
$6 to 10 million        11%
$3 to 6 million         23%
$750,000 to 3 million   32%
Under $750,000          46%

Clearly, the software industry still has a very long way to go in 
learning how to run large projects. Even smaller projects are no 
simple matter, with only a 46% success rate. I won't say that Agile 
methodologies have *all* the answers, but their essential tenets 
are supported by these figures and Jim Johnson's observations:
- Use iterative development
- Keep teams and projects small
- Keep feedback loops alive between the project team and users and 
    sponsors

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